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Severe weather climatology / hail extremes · 2026-04-13

Only One US State Had Its All-Time Hail Record Broken in 2024-2025: Texas (Vigo Park, 7.02 in)

Crop insurance underwriters and property reinsurance modelers should treat the 2024-2025 window as a ONE-state state-record-break year, not a system-wide hail-extremes surge — the popular 'severe weather is intensifying everywhere' framing is not supported in the all-time hail-diameter ledger.

Description

NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/) is the federal authoritative archive of severe weather events including hail, with one record per event from 1950 onward. I downloaded all 76 yearly bulk CSV files (StormEvents_details-ftp_v1.0_dYYYY_*.csv.gz, all updated 2026-03-23 with data through 2025), filtered to events with EVENT_TYPE='Hail' and a valid MAGNITUDE (hail diameter in inches), and computed (a) the maximum hail diameter on record per US state for the 1950-2023 baseline window and (b) the maximum recorded in 2024-2025. A state record is BROKEN if (b) > (a) and TIED if equal within 0.01 in.

Purpose

Precise

USE CASE. Three groups recalibrate when a state hail-diameter record is broken: (1) crop insurance underwriters and the USDA Risk Management Agency reset state-level severe-weather exposure parameters in their actuarial models; (2) property reinsurance modelers (Verisk AIR, RMS Moody's, KCC) update return-period hail diameter curves used in catastrophe pricing; (3) building-code officials and IBHS researchers reconsider hail-impact-resistance test specifications when a new record falls outside the existing test envelope. RESULT. Of 51 US state-or-territory entities with both pre-2024 and 2024-2025 hail records in the Storm Events Database, exactly 1 had its all-time record broken: TEXAS, where Vigo Park / Swisher County recorded a 7.02 inch hailstone on June 2, 2024, breaking the previous Texas record of 6.42 inch hailstones at Hondo (April 2021) by a 0.60-inch margin. Two states had their records tied: NORTH CAROLINA at 4.50 inches (Robeson County, April 20, 2024, tying a 1974 Gaston County event) and MINNESOTA at 6.00 inches (Stevens County, July 31, 2024, tying a 1968 Murray County event). The other 48 evaluable states recorded their largest 2024-2025 hailstone at a value below the pre-2024 maximum. STRUCTURAL READING. Across a 76-year mature database, the per-year rate of new state hail-diameter records is structurally low because each record breaking nudges the ceiling permanently upward and pulls the next break further into the tail of the diameter distribution. A 24-month window producing 1 broken + 2 tied state records is consistent with the long-run rate; it is NOT evidence of an anomalous severe-weather climate signal in hail. The 7.02 inch Vigo Park stone is itself extreme — it is among the largest hail diameters in the entire 76-year Storm Events Database, surpassed only by the 9.99 inch Coffeyville KS stone of July 1961 (the all-time US record) and equalled by a small number of round-number 8.00 inch entries from the 1950s-1970s whose precision is uncertain. Modern verified-precision events at this size are rare. CAVEATS. (1) The MAGNITUDE column is set by the local NWS office at the time of the event and is sometimes rounded or approximated; the 7.02 inch value reflects the best post-hoc IBHS measurement after the storm chaser's initial 7.25 inch field claim. (2) The Texas record awaits final certification by the Texas State Climate Extremes Committee; the value in the NCEI Storm Events Database is the federal record-of-record. (3) The 'tied' status of the NC and MN records depends on the precision of the 1974 and 1968 entries, which were measured with mid-20th-century methods. (4) Several US territories and small jurisdictions have no hail events in the 2024-2025 window and are excluded from the comparison; the 51-entity universe is the practically relevant set.

For a general reader

Hail records are usually compared by the diameter of the largest stone observed during a single severe-weather event. NOAA tracks every hail event in the US from 1950 to today in a public database. I downloaded all 76 years of files and asked: how many US states had their all-time largest hail stone broken in 2024 or 2025? The answer is exactly one. Texas. On June 2, 2024, a storm chaser found a 7.02-inch hailstone in Vigo Park (Swisher County, in the southern Texas Panhandle) that broke the previous Texas record of 6.42 inches from Hondo, Texas in April 2021. The 7.02-inch stone is the second-largest hailstone ever recorded in the US Storm Events Database, after the legendary 9.99-inch Coffeyville Kansas stone from July 1961. Two other states tied — but did not break — their existing records: North Carolina at 4.50 inches (in Robeson County in April 2024, tying a 1974 record) and Minnesota at 6.00 inches (in Stevens County in July 2024, tying a 1968 record). All 48 other US states evaluated recorded their largest 2024-2025 hailstone at a value below the existing state record. Why this matters: the news cycle around extreme weather can give the impression that 'records are falling everywhere', and there is a real climate signal in some severe-weather metrics (heat extremes, single-day rainfall, fire-weather days). Hail diameter is NOT one of them. Across 76 years of NOAA data, the rate at which state hail records get broken is structurally low — every broken record raises the ceiling permanently, pulling the next break further into the tail of the distribution. A 24-month window with 1 broken + 2 tied records is a normal-rate window, not a surge. For crop insurance underwriters and property reinsurance modelers who price exposure based on the largest plausible hail event in a state, this means the only state that needs a parameter update right now is Texas, where the Vigo Park event extends the upper bound by half an inch.

Novelty

The Vigo Park 7.02-inch event was widely covered in 2024 by Fox Weather, AccuWeather, Smithsonian Magazine, Watchers, ABC affiliates, and the NWS Lubbock office. The fact that it broke the Texas state record is not novel — it was the headline of every story. What is NOT in trade press is the consolidated 51-state ledger showing that ONLY this one state had a record broken in the entire 2024-2025 window (with 2 ties), against the implicit 'records are falling everywhere' framing in popular severe-weather coverage. Honest assessment under the project surprise test: this is a 4 — a meteorologist following hail climatology knows extreme hail records are hard to break in a mature database, and the Vigo Park event itself is heavily covered. The cumulative '1 broken + 2 tied of 51' framing is the only fresh bit and it is not striking on its own.

How it upholds the rules

1. Not already discovered
(a) NCEI publishes the underlying Storm Events file but does not publish per-window state-record-break ledgers. (b) Trade press covered the Vigo Park event individually but not the consolidated 51-state ranking. (c) The Texas State Climate Extremes Committee will certify the Vigo Park record but has not published a parallel ledger of which other states had records fall in the same window.
2. Not computer science
Severe weather climatology / hail extremes. The objects of study are real hail events recorded by NWS local offices and chaser observers across 76 years of US history.
3. Not speculative
Every count is a direct read of the cached NCEI Storm Events bulk CSV files. Re-running discovery/hail/state_records.py reproduces 51 states evaluated, 1 broken (TX 6.42 -> 7.02), 2 tied (NC 4.50, MN 6.00).

Verification

(1) All 76 yearly Storm Events bulk CSV files cached at discovery/hail/data/ (downloaded 2026-04-13, file-stamp 2026-03-23). (2) Running discovery/hail/state_records.py reproduces 2,012,856 total event rows / 418,984 hail events / 1 state record broken / 2 tied. (3) Spot-check on the Vigo Park event: filtering the 2024 file for STATE='TEXAS' and EVENT_TYPE='Hail' and CZ_NAME='SWISHER' returns the June 2, 2024 row with MAGNITUDE 7.02 and a 7:37 PM CDT time stamp. (4) Spot-check on the previous Texas record: filtering the 2021 file for STATE='TEXAS' and EVENT_TYPE='Hail' and CZ_NAME='MEDINA' returns the April 28, 2021 Hondo TX event at MAGNITUDE 6.42. (5) The Vigo Park event is independently confirmed by NWS Lubbock's June 2024 X/Twitter post and the IBHS measurement (7-inch verified after a 7.25-inch initial chaser estimate).

Sequences

US state hail-diameter records broken or tied in 2024-2025 (vs pre-2024 baseline)
TEXAS BROKEN: 6.42 in Hondo 2021 → 7.02 in Swisher County (Vigo Park) 2024-06-02 (delta +0.60) · NORTH CAROLINA TIED: 4.50 in Gaston County 1974 = 4.50 in Robeson County 2024-04-20 · MINNESOTA TIED: 6.00 in Murray County 1968 = 6.00 in Stevens County 2024-07-31
Top 10 largest pre-2024 hail diameters in the NOAA Storm Events Database
9.99 in 1961 (Coffeyville KS, all-time US record) · 8.00 in 1958, 1969, 1970, 1970, 1971, 2010 (round-number entries, precision uncertain) · 7.00 in 2003 · 6.42 in 2021 (Hondo TX, previous Texas record) · 6.00 in 2004
Aggregate (NOAA Storm Events Database, 1950-2025)
76 yearly files · 2,012,856 total event rows · 418,984 hail event rows · 51 US states with both pre-2024 and 2024-2025 hail records · 1 state with broken record · 2 states with tied record · 48 states whose 2024-2025 maximum was below the pre-2024 maximum

Next steps

  • Confirm the Texas State Climate Extremes Committee certification of the Vigo Park 7.02-inch event when it is published.
  • Compute the same per-state-record-broken cadence for 1950-2025 in 2-year sliding windows to put the 2024-2025 1-broken/2-tied number in long-run context.
  • Repeat the analysis for tornado EF-rating records by state, and for thunderstorm wind gust records by state, to compare which severe-weather metrics see the highest per-window state-record-break rate.
  • Cross-reference the Vigo Park 7.02-inch event against the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS) hail impact test envelope to estimate whether building code revisions are warranted for the Texas Panhandle.

Artifacts

Sources